La Nina has officially ended. All major indicators of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) are currently neutral, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm over the next six months, with some, but not all, models approaching or exceeding El Nino thresholds during the second half of this year. No models currently favour a return to La Nina.
El Nino signifies the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean, particularly along the South American coast. It can cause storms in the Pacific Ocean and reduce the number of storms in the Atlantic.
Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said the La Nina episode has ended and is unlikely to redevelop this year. CPC also said at least half of its dynamic models predicted El Nino -- associated with increased chances of rain for middle America -- may begin sometime this growing season.
Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says dry conditions in the Canadian Prairies have been resolved as La Nina fades. She says recent rainfall has been about twice the normal amount in central Alberta and Saskatchewan, erasing drought and creating a "large moisture surplus." Martell says soil moisture is highest in Saskatchewan.
"The sudden reversal in the weather -- dry to wet -- suggests La Nina's demise may have been responsible," says Martell. "An active storm track has developed in Western Canada from a suddenly strong jet stream delivering waves of showers."
Meanwhile, the trend to warming coastal waters off the Pacific coast of South and North America tends to result in warmer air temperature over most of Canada. The greatest warming is centred around Manitoba/western Ontario, where a temperature anomaly of up to +3 degrees Celsius (averaged over the last nine El Niño events). Southern Canada also tends to be drier during an El Nino as moisture (the storm track) stays further to the south.
If El Nino were to develop later this summer -- though there is no certainty of that at this time -- given the lateness of its arrival and mild intensity, it doesn't seem likely it will have any dramatic influence on crop output for this year.
Drew Lerner, meteorologist with World Weather Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas said if El Nino arrives it won't drastically change his existing forecast.
"If El Nino comes along, it reinforces our forecast, giving us a little bit of a milder summer. And probably it will perpetuate rainfall," said Lerner. "We expect quite a bit of rain this summer with or without El Nino."
Lerner predicted the El Nino event will develop later in the summer. But, he said it could affect weather patterns sooner. "If we start evolving towards an El Nino, sometimes that has an influence on weather patterns even though we don't have an El Nino officially on the way," he said.
Lerner said it looks like there will be a good balance of rain versus sun and the crop yield should be average, if not above average. "I think for the most part it's going to be a good production year," Lerner said. "I think that the biggest concern would be that too much cloudiness and cool temperatures might promote slower degree day accumulation and therefore slower crop development. So, crop maturation rates could end up being a little late."
Lerner recommended that farmers get their crops in the ground early to ensure they see an improvement from last season's yield. "Last year we were so wet we couldn't put a lot of crop in the ground. A pretty large portion of the eastern Prairies never got planted," Lerner said. "So just from that perspective alone we're going to be far better off because we're going to have probably at least two thirds of that area that didn't get planted last year; planted this year."
The forecast isn't good for everyone, though. Some farmers' fields are still saturated from last season's floods. As a result, producers in those areas may not be able to plant their crop.
"There's still a portion of southeastern Saskatchewan and a few other random areas that are still dealing with surplus moisture. The ground is completely saturated in those areas so we can't percolate the moisture into the soil and it has to be evaporated out," said Lerner. "That means if we keep a fairly high frequency of rainfall in those regions, some of these areas will still be too wet to be planted this year."
Lerner said that if El Nino fully develops, it probably won't be until after the growing season ends on the Canadian Prairies.
Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada offers information on commodity markets and marketing strategies. Call 204-654-4290 or visit www.pfcanada.com to find out more about his services.